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Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (October 5 – 9, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish  

EURUSD was volatile for most past of last week, and there is not yet a strong directional movement, though the bias is bearish. Even the bullish breakout that was performed on Friday could prove to be a false breakout unless the resistance lines at 1.1350 and 1.1400 are overcome. On the other hand, there are strong support lines at 1.1150 and 1.1100. This month, there could be some selling pressure on EURUSD as a result of an expected strength in USD.

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

In spite of the large pullback that was seen on October 2, this pair remains a bull market. For the bull market to be rendered illogical, there is a need for the pair to breach the support levels 0.9600 and 0.9550 to the downside, staying below them. It would not be easy for bears to achieve this aim because the outlook on USD is bright for the month of October (and so is the outlook on CHF). What can be a noteworthy challenge for the bullish bias on USDCHF is the expected stamina in CHF itself, which would be visible on certain CHF pairs within the last two weeks of this month. In addition, a significant rally must happen on EURUSD before USDCHF can go south protractedly. Unless that happens, USDCHF would remain bullish, meaning that the last pullback might be another opportunity to join the uptrend.

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish    

The rally that happened on this currency trading instrument last Friday was not strong enough to jeopardize the existing bearish trend in the market. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and there is a possibility that price could continue going south. Since the outlook on USD is bright for the month of October, price would find it somewhat difficult to make a protracted northward journey. Large movements are expected this month.

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Neutral    

There is not yet any directional movement on this currency trading instrument. This is a choppy market and it would be prudent to stay away from it until there is a directional movement. For this currency pair to go into a trending mode, price must either close above the supply level at 121.50 or below the demand level at 118.00. Without this happening, the market would remain choppy and trendless. One thing is sure: There would be an end to the present consolidation in this month.

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

The movement of this cross was somehow flat last week – all in the context of a downtrend. This cross, including other JPY pairs, would perform strong trending movements this month, and this week is likely to be bullish for some JPY pairs, including the EUR/JPY cross. There could be an upwards movement of 200 pips this week, which would lead to a brand-new bullish outlook, should it happen. A major factor in the direction of this cross in this week is the condition of Yen, which could be weak.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Trading can be an intellectual stimulation, as well as a way to make money…. A well-conceived and executed transaction is a thing of beauty, to be experienced, enjoyed, and

remembered. It should have an essence transcending monetary reward.” – Mark Minervini (a trading legend)

Source: www.tallinex.com

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