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Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 1 – 5, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Neutral   

This pair went up from the support line at 1.0800, reaching the resistance line at 1.0950. From that resistance line, price went down 120 pips. There is a neutral bias on this pair, which would remain in force until price goes below the support line at 1.0800 or above the resistance line at 1.0950. For a few weeks, that resistance line at 1.0950 has been refusing bullish movement above it, and therefore it is more likely that price would go further downwards this week, breaking below the support line at 1.0800, owing to a bearish outlook on EUR pairs for this week and for most of February 2016.

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

Last week, USDCHF moved sideways from Monday to Thursday, in the context of an uptrend, but broke upwards on Friday, reinforcing the existing uptrend.  The resistance level at 1.0250 has already been tried, and there is a high possibility that price would go above that resistance level, targeting another resistance levels at 1.0300 and 1.0350. This would be easier especially in the wake of a weaker EURUSD.

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish   

As it is always mentioned, long trades will usually be traps on GBPUSD until it is clearly confirmed that the bearish bias is completely over. Bulls made commendable effort to effect a rally last week – all of which proved futile with what happened on Friday, January 29, 2016 (a 200-pip pullback). The outlook on GBP, and therefore, GBP pairs is bearish for the month of February, even beyond the month. Bullish signals in this market should be ignored, because GBP would face challenges at many fronts, including the strengthening of AUD and NZD in this month.

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish   

This currency trading instrument moved in a tight range from Monday to Thursday, but there was a significant bullish breakout early Friday. This bullish breakout took price upwards by 300 pips, testing the supply level at 121.50; plus the rally would continue this week. There were strong bullish breakouts also on other JPY pairs: a beginning of protracted bullish movements on those pairs. Yes, bullish movements were already expected to start on JPY pairs around the end of January, and as a result of this, traders are advised to shun bearish signals on JPY pairs in February, because the outlook on them is bullish for the month.

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

This cross had already started moving upwards before the massive bullish breakout happened on Friday. Altogether, price went upwards by 400 pips last week, reaching the supply zone at 132.00. Here, pullbacks should be seen as opportunities to go long, because JPY pairs have high probabilities of trending further upwards in the month of February 2016. Currencies like EUR and GBP, which would be weak against some other currencies, would be seen going up against JPY in February. EURJPY could go further upwards by at least, 200 pips this week

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“One major aspect of Forex I really value is that trends are easy to find. Trading a trending chart has a big edge for two main reasons. First, trends generate good follow-through. In many instances they go much further than anyone might have expected.” – Gabriel Grammatidis

Source: www.tallinex.com

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