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USD: Divergent; Investors To Keep Adding To Longs – Credit Agricole

The USD policy divergence trade staged a comeback in recent days and we expect investors to continue to add to USD-longs in the near term.

Improving global risk sentiment has helped ease US’ financial conditions (as shown by the recent drop in our financial conditions index (FCI)). The FCI has been inching higher more recently as growing lift-off bets pushed USD and US rates higher again. That said, we are still below the FCI highs from the summer suggesting that the front-loading of Fed rate hike expectations could continue in the coming days and support USD.

The Fed speakers and the US data releases next week will play an important role as well. Ahead of retail sales data, market consensus is for a bounce in October after the dip in September.

We further expect the Fed speakers to reiterate that December will be a live meeting for lift-off. A potential pick up in risk aversion could make shorts in NZD/USD and AUD/USD particularly attractive next week.

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