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US Dollar’s Reign Faltered by Disappointing U.S. Data

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a bullish session yesterday after the bears failed to continue Friday’s downside momentum. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI disappointed, showing a value of 48.2, slightly below analysts’ expectations.

Technical Outlook

The bounce higher in close vicinity of the key support at 1.0800 shows that the ranging period is still not over and that we may see another move close to 1.0945 resistance. The level at 1.0870 is starting to lose its strength and cannot be considered at the moment support although the pair is trading above it and almost the same is true for the 50 period Exponential Moving Average that is moving sideways. We expect choppy price action until a clear breakout occurs and our bias is neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Unemployment Change is released today at 8:55 am GMT and expected to show a change of -7K compared to the previous -14K. The indicator is not especially important but can strengthen the Euro if lower than expected numbers are posted because less unemployed people shows a thriving economy.

GBP/USD

The Pound benefited from a better than expected Manufacturing PMI while the greenback suffered from a lower value of the indicator with the same name and thus the first day of the week was controlled by the bulls.

Technical Outlook

The pair is testing the resistance at 1.4350 again but this may very well be the start of a ranging period if volatility drops near this zone. Also, the bears are starting to lose their grip on the pair and the downtrend is now severely weakened. A move above 1.4350 followed by a re-test from above and a bounce would suggest that we will see the pair touch 1.4475 in the near future.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI comes out, showing the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers about the business conditions in the construction sector. The forecast is 57.6 and usually higher numbers strengthen the Pound because the survey also acts as a leading indicator of economic health.

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