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US Dollar Starts the New Year Strong, Threatens Support

EUR/USD

Forex News: German inflation disappointed yesterday by showing a change of -0.1% (forecast 0.2%) and as a result the pair traveled south after an attempt to break the 50 period EMA.

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading once again below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the short term bias is bearish. If the sellers can take price below 1.0800 and turn this level into resistance, we will most likely see a move into 1.0700 – 1.0690 during the days to come. Both oscillators are in the lower part of the range but not oversold so the downside movement can continue; however, a bullish break of the 50 period EMA would make 1.0980 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Flash Estimate CPI is released, and anticipated to show a 0.4% increase compared to the previous 0.2%. The German CPI disappointed yesterday and this may negatively affect the Eurozone inflation but under normal circumstances, higher than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the Euro.

GBP/USD

The pound-dollar had an active day, with a lot of up and down movement but overall the pair didn’t make substantial advances, finishing the trading session close to where it started it.

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.4790 was breached yesterday but price soon returned below it, making this the first resistance in front of rising prices in the future. Price will most likely touch 1.4700 and the bears will attempt to break this support en route to the key level at 1.4600. Because the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are both approaching oversold levels, we consider that the pair is in need of a bullish retracement so it is very possible to see today a move below 1.4700 followed by a climb above this level.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index comes out at 9:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 56.1 (previous 55.3). This is a leading indicator of economic health derived from the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector and usually higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound.

 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 7-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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