The US Dollar may rise if signs of rising employment costs boost Federal Reserve interest rate speculation while the Euro is likely to look past July CPI data.
US Dollar May Rise as Employment Cost Data Boosts Fed Rate Hike Outlook
July’s Flash Eurozone CPI Unlikely to Inspire Lasting Euro Follow-Through
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The preliminary set of July’s Eurozone CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected print at 0.2 percent, unchanged from the prior month.
The release seemsunlikely to inspire meaningful follow-through from the Euro considering their limited implications for near-term ECB monetary policy. Indeed, the central bank appears effectively on auto-pilot as it continues to implement its €60 billion/month QE effort through September 2016.
US economic data will enter the spotlight in the day. The second-quarter Employment Cost Index report is in focus, where expectations point to a slight deceleration for a print at 0.6 percent compared with 0.7 percent in the three months through March.
US news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts recently, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such a result – particularly if it is bolstered by an upside revision on July’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gauge – stands to reinforce bets on an on-coming Fed interest rate hike following this week’s hawkish shift in FOMC rhetoric, boosting the US Dollar.
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