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US Dollar May Rise as Payrolls Data Boosts Fed Rate Hike Bets

The US Dollar may rise as upbeat payrolls data boosts prospects for an imminent interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Rise as Upbeat Jobs Data Boosts Fed Tightening Outlook

  • Australian Dollar Gains as RBA Policy Statement Weighs on Rate Cut Bets

  • See Economic News Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A relatively lackluster economic data docket in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking ahead to July’s US Employment report. An increase of 225,000 in nonfarm payrolls is expected. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 5.3 percent, matching a seven-year low recorded in June.

US economic news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to expectations since mid-May. That suggests analysts’ models are underestimating the vigor of recovery from the first-quarter downswing, opening the door for an upside surprise.

Such a result is likely to cement bets on a rate increase at the Fed’s September meeting, boosting the US Dollar at the expense of most of its top counterparts. The onset of risk aversion triggered by the prospect of US tightening even as the Eurozone and China remain sluggish, threatening global growth at large, may see outsized losses for commodity-bloc currencies but boost the Japanese Yen.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.5 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked a parallel move higher in front-end bond yields, pointing to ebbing RBA rate hike bets as the drive behind the move.

The improvement in investors’ outlook followed the release of the central bank’s monthly Statement on Monetary Policy. Officials upgraded their inflation outlook and argued that February and May rate cuts still working through into the broad economy, undermining the case for further easing.

Critical Levels
CCY Supp 3 Supp 2 Supp 1 Pivot Point Res 1 Res 2 Res 3
EURUSD 1.0774 1.0844 1.0885 1.0914 1.0955 1.0984 1.1054
GBPUSD 1.5201 1.5370 1.5441 1.5539 1.5610 1.5708 1.5877

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