The following are UBS’ latest short-term (mostly intraday) trading strategies for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD.
EUR/USD: moves will increasingly be driven by a lack of liquidity, rather than actual interest. Buyers will be happy to see the pair back at the overnight low, while sellers will be lined up above 1.0925.
GBP/USD: We saw whippy price action yesterday before and after UK retail sales data. Cable eventually traded down to a low of 1.4865, just shy of 1.4857, the low from April 21. The pair is a buy below 1.4900 and toppish around 1.5150.
AUD/USD: has traded in a relatively tight range today, with most of the focus in Asia on the yen. We see AUDUSD heading lower and there should be resistance at 0.7160, with little after that until 0.7280 and 0.7400, which is the key pivot on the top. On the downside, focus on the uptrend line that comes in around 0.7050. If that is broken, the pair could test the September low.
NZD/USD: has been working its way through the short-term support at 0.6720 and 0.6690, without gaining much momentum. Stick to shorts and add into rallies towards 0.6800, with a stop above 0.6900, targeting the uptrend line that comes in around 0.6550.