Subscribe to RSS

S&P 500: Could US stocks hit fresh highs in early 2016?

It is the last full trading day of 2015 as the major global stock exchanges will either be shut tomorrow or close early due to the New Year’s Eve and will remain closed on the New Year’s Day. Normal trading will resume from Monday January 4. Understandably, the economic calendar is very quiet, although later on in the day we will have the latest US pending home sales and crude oil inventories data, which could offer some volatility. Tomorrow’s key US data will include the weekly unemployment claims and Chicago PMI. Clearly, there is not much fresh fundamental stimulus to provide direction for the equity markets, except perhaps the potential volatility in energy stocks should oil prices move sharply on the back of the US crude inventories data. Consequently, we are concentrating on the technical analysis side of things today.

Below, we are looking at the daily chart of the S&P 500. Though technically speaking, the index is still in consolidation, a closer inspection reveals some bullish indications. For a start, the bears have now had at least three failed attempts at trying to break the key support around 1995-2008 (shaded in light blue), an area which was formerly resistance. Relative to the last sell-off that occurred at the end of the summer, these latest futile attempts to move lower have also been shallow, with the index repeatedly finding good support around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (~2008) of the up move from the August low. The shallow retracements suggest the bulls have more control.

Added to this, some of the lagging indicators are also now turning bullish. The 50-day moving average (2068) has already moved above the 200 MA (2060) again to create a so-called “golden crossover,” while the momentum indicator MACD has just formed its own “bullish crossover.” The golden cross is an important development for some momentum traders. This group of market participants typically only buy when an asset’s moving averages are in this order (of course, only when their other entry criteria are also met). The last time the S&P’s golden cross occurred was in early 2012, which saw the index climb steadily for the next few years until a “death cross” (i.e. 200 SMA < 50 SMA) was formed this August. Although we always warn that historical data is not a good indicator of future performance, the markets do tend to move higher when a golden cross happens. In the case of the S&P, this crossover had occurred some 22 times since 1970, according to Dow Jones. Of those occurrences, the index traded higher 19 times a year later. This would thus be the 23rd crossover since 1970. Will we see higher stock prices in 2016?

But the S&P has struggled to move higher from around these current levels so many times in 2015, so the bulls will now need to chop some wood if we are to see fresh all-time highs soon. The immediate resistance levels to watch are at 2080, followed by a bearish trend line around 2100/10. The previous peak was formed around 2137 in May. On the downside, the above-mentioned moving averages could provide some support upon re-test. Failure to do so, could see the index head towards the next potential support at 2045 and if this level breaks down then a revisit of the key support area between 1995 and 2008 could be a possibility in early 2016.

S&P 500

0 commentsback to post

Add your comment

Nickname:
E-mail:
Website:
Comment:

Other articlesgo to homepage

$1000 Welcome Deposit Bonus Promotions – eToro

$1000 Welcome Deposit Bonus Promotions – eToro(0)

Get Forex Welcome Deposit Bonus Promotions code by eToro Forex Broker. Trade over 900 global instruments with most advance and friendly trading platform. Link:  Top Copy Trading Social Platforms Link: Up to $1000 Welcome Deposit Bonus Available to: All new account Ending Date: 31 December 2018 Bonus Offer: Get Forex Welcome Deposit Bonus Promotions code

$50 Forex No Deposit Welcome Free Bonus – ForexBull

$50 Forex No Deposit Welcome Free Bonus – ForexBull(0)

$50 Forex No Deposit Welcome Free Bonus is available to all new clients of ForexBull as well as for those who still haven’t got any previous No Deposit Welcome Free Bonuses from the company. Link:  $50 Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus Available to: All new trading account Ending Date: 31 December 2017 Bonus offer: $50

Forex Global Demo Trading Contest 2017 – AETOS

Forex Global Demo Trading Contest 2017 – AETOS(0)

The AETOS Capital Forex Global Demo Trading Contest 2017, with weekly prizes and overall championship prizes to win! The total prize of the contest is worth $10,000*! Link:  Global Forex Demo Trading Contest Available to: All clients Ending Date: 31 December 2017 Contest offer: Global Forex Demo Trading Contest Top prize worth $10000 As one

100% Double Dynamo Bonus up to $10000 – FXPRIMUS

100% Double Dynamo Bonus up to $10000 – FXPRIMUS(0)

100% Double Dynamo Bonus Forex on up to $10,000 plus up to $4 cash back Rebate Bonus for every lot traded! Be rewarded with this incredible offer which is available for a limited time only Link: 100% Double Dynamo Bonus Available to: All New and Existing Clients Ending Date: 31 December 2018 Bonus offer: 100%

Get 25% Credit Bonus on their first Deposit – HYCM

Get 25% Credit Bonus on their first Deposit – HYCM(0)

Get 25% Credit Bonus available on your Deposits. Experience Some of HYCM New Features, Services and Offers Receive 25% Forex trading credit bonus Link:  25% Trading Bonus on your Deposits Ending Date:  31 December 2017 Available to:   New Clients only Bonus Offer: 25% Trading Bonus Available on your deposits to New Clients only. This promotion

50% Deposit Bonus and $5 No Deposit Bonus – FortFs

50% Deposit Bonus and $5 No Deposit Bonus – FortFs(0)

Up to 50% Bonus of Every Deposit and $5 Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus. You Deposited $1000 on your account, chose a 50% bonus and got 500 extra dollars to the initial deposit amount. Link:  Up to 50% Bonus of Every Deposit Link:  $5 Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus Link:  15% Support Margin Bonus Available

Get $30 Forex Deposit Bonus for an Article – FreshForex

Get $30 Forex Deposit Bonus for an Article – FreshForex(0)

Get $30 Forex Deposit Bonus for an Article Write an expert article about the Forex trading market to earn a $30 Forex deposit bonus to start earning from scratch and spread your ideas, thoughts. Link:  $30 Deposit Bonus for an Article Link:  $2017 No Deposit Bonus offers Link:  123% Deposit Bonus Promotion Available to: All

Get $50 Free Campaign and Trade Three Easy Steps – UFX

Get $50 Free Campaign and Trade Three Easy Steps – UFX(0)

Get $50 Free Bonus Campaign and Trade Three Easy Steps Trading is simple and it’s on UFX. Get your FREE $50 No Deposit Welcome Bonus and start forex trading. Link:  $50 Forex No Deposit Bonus Promotion Link:  100% Real Money CashBack Promotion Available to: All new trading account Ending Date: 31 December 2017 Bonus offer:

The Ultimate Forex Partners Competition – Tickmill

The Ultimate Forex Partners Competition – Tickmill(0)

The Ultimate Forex Partners Competition of winning a brand new Harley-Davidson or one of over $10,000 worth of prizes that we are offering Link:  Ultimate Partners Ride Contest Link:  $30 Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus Link:  Forex Monthly Live Trading Contest Link:  Weekly Demo Race Trading Contest Available to: All new traders Ending Date: 31

100% Welcome Bonus Plus Risk Free Trade – Trade12

100% Welcome Bonus Plus Risk Free Trade – Trade12(0)

Get 100% Welcome Deposit Bonus and 7-day risk free trade, Boost your trading with a free 100% Welcome Deposit Bonus to your Live Trading Account. Link:   Get 100% Welcome Bonus Link:  50% Exclusive Deposit Bonus Link:  Free Daily Forex Trading Signals Available to: All new clients Ending Date: 31 December 2017 Bonus Offer: Get

read more

Forex Featured Broker

Contacts and information

ForexDepositNews.com Forex Deposit Bonus, Forex No Deposit Bonus, Forex Live Contest, Forex Demo Contest, Free Forex Bonus Forex Brokers Review and Other All Forex promotions.

ForexDepositNews.com

Social networks

Most popular categories