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Sell AUD/USD On Rallies; Commodity FX To Stay Under Pressure

In Asian hours the main focus was on Chinese trade data, which came in better than expected. Even if the latest data shows an improvement it still confirms weaker conditions. At the same time it lowers scope of the PboC considering a more aggressive monetary policy stance. Accordingly the latest development comes to the detriment of liquidity expectations, especially in an environment in which the Fed remains on track with considering higher rates in December. From that angle the latest data kept risk sentiment unstable with most Asian stock market indices trading lower at the time of writing.

All of the above should keep in particular commodity currencies under pressure, especially as capped global growth expectations and a well supported USD should keep oil prices under pressure.

In Australia, November business confidence was released. Even if the latest data indicates better conditions the main focus should be on this week’s labour data release, especially as it should be taken as a strong driver of inflation expectations. Nevertheless, even if employment data should indicate improving conditions, there is limited room of rising RBA rate expectations, in particular as long as China related uncertainty is keeping external demand expectations low.

From that angle the AUD should stay driven by external factors such as global risk sentiment and commodity price developments, which should stay unstable as explained above. Therefore we believe the AUD should still be sold on rallies, for instance against the USD

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