Subscribe to RSS

Is This The Beginning Of The End Of The USD-Uptrend – Credit Agricole

The question is whether this is the beginning of the end of the USD-uptrend and, by implication, the end of the de-coupling trade as we know it.

To be sure, it is getting very difficult to be bullish USD. Indeed, the factor that has kept the longUSD trade going in the face of fading prospects for Fed lift-off and ever flatter glide path for rates was the belief that the US growth outlook is superior to the rest of the world and that wage growth and inflation will pick-up on the back of tighter labour market conditions. This belief was shaken pretty badly last week. In the near term, markets may find some solace in the robust non-manufacturing ISM for September due later today. In addition, the September Fed minutes on Wednesday will likely highlight that the decision to delay lift-off was a very close call. It may take more than that to restore market confidence in the de-coupling trade, however, and the USD may continue to struggle to perform for now.

All that said, we think it is premature to call for the end of the USD rally. Indeed, global risk aversion remains elevated and could get worse if the upcoming IMF meeting of global central bankers and finance ministry officials over the weekend fails to send a clear signal that more policy action to combat the global growth slowdown is imminent. In particular, all eyes will be on the Chinese officials with investors hoping for targeted fiscal stimulus to boost domestic demand in the world’s second largest economy. Potential disappointments could fuel risk aversion yet again and boost the USD against risk-correlated and commodity currencies. We further expect that the RBA to keep rates unchanged on Tuesday but signal growing concerns about the outlook for China and the global economy. In turn, renewed rate cut bets could undermine AUD in the near term.

Another reason not to write off the USD-rally completely is the fact that we expect the BoJ and the ECB to continue to ease from here. Indeed, CA economists have frontloaded their call for BoJ QE to October 30. Turning to the ECB, we suspect that is may take a few months before we see QE extended. That said, the latest drop in inflation and inflation expectations likely did not go unnoticed at the Governing Council and could feature prominently during President Draghi’s speech in Frankfurt on Tuesday. To the extent that this encourages market speculation of more QE, it could add to headwinds for EUR ahead of the October 22 ECB meeting.

This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.

0 commentsback to post

Add your comment

Nickname:
E-mail:
Website:
Comment:

Other articlesgo to homepage

444% Profit Receive for a Single Trade – Grand Capital

444% Profit Receive for a Single Trade – Grand Capital(0)

Up to 444% Profit receive with our new Express Options for Grand Capital Binary Option Broker Ltd. Make a correct prediction for 3 assets at the same time Link: Up to 444% Profit Receive for a single trade Link:  $500 Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus Link:  40% Forex Welcome Deposit Bonus Available to: All new

Receive $30 Credit Bonus for Trusted  Broker- FXTM

Receive $30 Credit Bonus for Trusted Broker- FXTM(0)

Switch to ForexTime and receive $30 Trading Credit Bonus. Join the hundreds of thousands of traders around the world who have already chosen ForexTime as a broker and receive $30 Trading Credit Bonus as a thank you for switching. Link:  Up to $200 Cash Bonus this December Link:  Receive $30 Tradeable Credit Bonus Link:  FX

15% Support Margin Bonus and $50 Free Bonus – FortFS

15% Support Margin Bonus and $50 Free Bonus – FortFS(0)

15% Support Margin Bonus Plus $50 No Deposit Bonus to all New and Existing Traders. For Every Traders who passed the verification process in their traders room can get the $50 Free Bonus Link:  $50 Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus Link: Up to 50% Bonus of Every Deposit Link: 15% Support Margin Bonus As from

Get $34 Forex No Deposit Bonus Contest – Xtream Forex

Get $34 Forex No Deposit Bonus Contest – Xtream Forex(0)

Sign-Up and Get $34 Forex No Deposit Bonus Contest Enjoy Forex Trading Without Deposit. Grab your $34 Forex No Deposit Bonus and start your live Forex trading to win big cash prize. Link: $34 Forex No Deposit Bonus Contest Available to: All new clients Forex $50 No Deposit Bonus Contest Duration? Registration is open till

115% Classic Bonus and $30 Welcome Bonus – RoboForex

115% Classic Bonus and $30 Welcome Bonus – RoboForex(0)

Up to 115% Classic Bonus Promotion and 50% Tradable Deposit Bonus to All RoboForex New and existing clients. 50% Tradable bonus from RoboForex is the type of bonus, which is not cancelled when the equity on your account is below the amount of the bonus funds Link:  $30 Welcome Bonus Promotion Link:  50% Tradable Bonus

Receive 25% Free Credit Bonus on your First Deposit – HYCM

Receive 25% Free Credit Bonus on your First Deposit – HYCM(0)

Get your forex trading off to a flying start. Sign up today and receive 25% Free Credit Bonus on your first deposit. The maximum trading credit bonus awarded under this promotion is US$5,000 Link: 25% Free Credit Bonus on your First Deposit Available to: All new clients Bonus Offer: Sign up today and receive 25%

60% Withdrawal Holiday Deposit Bonus – FXCL Markets

60% Withdrawal Holiday Deposit Bonus – FXCL Markets(0)

60% Withdrawal Holiday Deposit Bonus to All new and existing clients. The 60% Withdrawal Holiday  Deposit Bonus limit is $2,000 per trader. Link: 60% Holiday Withdrawal Bonus Available to: All new and existing clients Bonus Offer: 60% Withdrawal Holiday Deposit Bonus to All new and existing clients The bonus limit is $2,000 per trader. The

Up to 250% Exclusive Trading Credit Bonus – InstaForex

Up to 250% Exclusive Trading Credit Bonus – InstaForex(0)

InstaForex Exclusive Bonus Promotions is unparalleled on the market and gives a matchless opportunity to receive a Exclusive Bonus Promotions in the range of 30% to 250%. Making use of any kind of bonus, you can bump up your live trading account balance after depositing. Link:  Get 250% Bonus for First Deposit Link:  $500 Forex

New Promo-Action Free No Deposit Bonus $50 – FortFS

New Promo-Action Free No Deposit Bonus $50 – FortFS(0)

New Promo-Action Free No Deposit Bonus 50 USD to all New and Existing Traders. For Every Traders who passed the verification process in their traders room can get the $50 Free No Deposit Bonus Promotion Link:  $50 Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus Link:  500 USD cents Forex No Deposit Bonus Link:  Up to 50% Bonus

Get 500 Cent Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus – FortFs

Get 500 Cent Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus – FortFs(0)

Get 500 Cent Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus 2018-2019 to All New Traders. Open a forex real trading account, pass the personal data verification procedure and get the 500 Cent Free Forex Welcome Bonus! Link:  Up to 50% Bonus of Every Deposit Link:  500 Cent Forex No Deposit Bonus Link:  15% Support Margin Bonus Available

read more

Forex Featured Broker

Contacts and information

ForexDepositNews.com Forex Deposit Bonus, Forex No Deposit Bonus, Forex Live Contest, Forex Demo Contest, Free Forex Bonus Forex Brokers Review and Other All Forex promotions.

ForexDepositNews.com

Social networks

Most popular categories