Subscribe to RSS

Is This The Beginning Of The End Of The USD-Uptrend – Credit Agricole

The question is whether this is the beginning of the end of the USD-uptrend and, by implication, the end of the de-coupling trade as we know it.

To be sure, it is getting very difficult to be bullish USD. Indeed, the factor that has kept the longUSD trade going in the face of fading prospects for Fed lift-off and ever flatter glide path for rates was the belief that the US growth outlook is superior to the rest of the world and that wage growth and inflation will pick-up on the back of tighter labour market conditions. This belief was shaken pretty badly last week. In the near term, markets may find some solace in the robust non-manufacturing ISM for September due later today. In addition, the September Fed minutes on Wednesday will likely highlight that the decision to delay lift-off was a very close call. It may take more than that to restore market confidence in the de-coupling trade, however, and the USD may continue to struggle to perform for now.

All that said, we think it is premature to call for the end of the USD rally. Indeed, global risk aversion remains elevated and could get worse if the upcoming IMF meeting of global central bankers and finance ministry officials over the weekend fails to send a clear signal that more policy action to combat the global growth slowdown is imminent. In particular, all eyes will be on the Chinese officials with investors hoping for targeted fiscal stimulus to boost domestic demand in the world’s second largest economy. Potential disappointments could fuel risk aversion yet again and boost the USD against risk-correlated and commodity currencies. We further expect that the RBA to keep rates unchanged on Tuesday but signal growing concerns about the outlook for China and the global economy. In turn, renewed rate cut bets could undermine AUD in the near term.

Another reason not to write off the USD-rally completely is the fact that we expect the BoJ and the ECB to continue to ease from here. Indeed, CA economists have frontloaded their call for BoJ QE to October 30. Turning to the ECB, we suspect that is may take a few months before we see QE extended. That said, the latest drop in inflation and inflation expectations likely did not go unnoticed at the Governing Council and could feature prominently during President Draghi’s speech in Frankfurt on Tuesday. To the extent that this encourages market speculation of more QE, it could add to headwinds for EUR ahead of the October 22 ECB meeting.

This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.

0 commentsback to post

Add your comment

Nickname:
E-mail:
Website:
Comment:

Other articlesgo to homepage

150% Bonus for a First Time to Binary Trading – NordFX

150% Bonus for a First Time to Binary Trading – NordFX(0)

Up to 150% Bonus for a First Time to binary options Account. For a perfect start, we offer you a 150% bonus for a first-time $5,000 deposit. Link:  Up to 150% Bonus for a First Time Link:  100% Withdrawable Deposit Bonus Link:  55% Deposit Bonus Promotion Available to: All new traders Ending Date: 31 December

100% Welcome Bonus Plus Daily Free Signals – Trade12

100% Welcome Bonus Plus Daily Free Signals – Trade12(0)

Get 100% Welcome Deposit Bonus and 7-day risk free trade, Boost your trading with a free 100% Welcome Deposit Bonus to your Live Trading Account. Link:   Get 100% Welcome Bonus Link:  50% Exclusive Deposit Bonus Link:  Free Daily Forex Trading Signals Available to: All new clients Ending Date: 31 December 2017 Bonus Offer: Get

25 Euro Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus – direktbroker-FX

25 Euro Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus – direktbroker-FX(0)

25 Euro Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus to all EU and the UK  live Trading Account Holder. Open a real account direct instead of an demo account first and you will get a 25,- Euro Free. Link:  25 Euro Free Welcome Bonus Available to: All new account Ending Date: 31 December 2017 Bonus offer: 25

Up to $250 Cash in Your Expert Advisor – ThinkMarkets

Up to $250 Cash in Your Expert Advisor – ThinkMarkets(0)

Up to $250 Cash in Your Expert Advisor. Make the Move to Think Trader and Cash in Your Expert Advisor for Up to $250* Link:  Up to $250 in Your Expert Advisor Available to: All new account Ending Date: 31 December 2017 Bonus offer: Up to $250 Cash in Your Expert Advisor Bonus to all new

$30 Forex No Deposit Bonus Welcome Promo – XM

$30 Forex No Deposit Bonus Welcome Promo – XM(0)

$30 Forex  No Deposit Bonus Welcome Promo Bonus and 15% Welcome Deposit Bonus, Welcome Bonus brings Real Account clients the best rewards available. Entering the markets and trading with XM enables you to earn from your trades and build your own bonus up to a maximum of $1,000. Link:  $30 Forex No Deposit Bonus Link: 

50% Re-Deposit & 100% Tradable Bonus – Xtream Forex

50% Re-Deposit & 100% Tradable Bonus – Xtream Forex(0)

50% Re-Deposit Tradable Forex Bonus for all of its traders. Every existing and new trader is eligible for this Re-Deposit Tradable Bonus for depositing into their trading account. Link:  100% Tradable Deposit Bonus Link:  35% Deposit Cash Bonus Link:  50% Re-Deposit Forex Bonus 50% Re-Deposit Forex Bonus XtreamForex is glad to announce 50% re-deposit forex

Free $50 No Deposit Bonus and Start Trading – Trade360

Free $50 No Deposit Bonus and Start Trading – Trade360(0)

$50 Forex No Deposit Bonus is available only once for each client. Every verified user can use $50 No Deposit Bonus and get one or several investment accounts. Link:  $50 Forex No Deposit Required Bonus Link:  $280 CashBack Rewards Program Available to: All new account Ending Date: 31 December 2017 Bonus offer: $50 New No

200% Cashback Rebate Bonus up to $10000 – ForexTime

200% Cashback Rebate Bonus up to $10000 – ForexTime(0)

200% Forex Cash back Rebate Bonus up to $10,000, whether they’re first time depositors or returning clients. and get $4 Cashback back for every lot you trade. Link:  Loyalty Cashback Promotions Link:  200% Cashback Rebate up to $10000 Ending Date: 31 December 2017 Available to: All Customers Bonus Offer: ForexTime Rewards Loyalty in Withdrawable Cashback

$50 Free No Deposit Credit Bonus Promotion – GDMFX

$50 Free No Deposit Credit Bonus Promotion – GDMFX(0)

$50 No Deposit Credit Bonus Promotion 2017 to all new account. The $50 no-deposit bonuses is available for clients who open their first registration with GDMFX Link: $50 No Deposit Credit Bonus Promotion Available to: All new account Ending Date: 31 December 2017 Bonus offer: $50 No Deposit Credit Bonus Promotion 2017 to all new account.

100% Deposit Bonus and Forex Free Signals – Trade12

100% Deposit Bonus and Forex Free Signals – Trade12(0)

Forex Free Trading Signals via SMS. EMAIL. SKYPE. WHATSAPP and 100% Welcome Deposit Bonus to your Live Trading Account. Link:  Free Daily Forex Trading Signals Link:  Get 100% Welcome Deposit Bonus Link:  50% Exclusive Deposit Bonus Available to: All new clients Ending Date: 31 December 2017 Bonus Offer: Get 100% Welcome Deposit Bonus Plus 7-day

read more

Forex Featured Broker

Contacts and information

ForexDepositNews.com Forex Deposit Bonus, Forex No Deposit Bonus, Forex Live Contest, Forex Demo Contest, Free Forex Bonus Forex Brokers Review and Other All Forex promotions.

ForexDepositNews.com

Social networks

Most popular categories