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Intraday Outlooks For USD Index, EUR/USD, USD/JPY – SEB

The following are the intraday outlooks for USD Index, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

USD Index: Should start recovering. The decline triggered by the FOMC again being on hold should soon level off. With roughly only a 30% probability for a hike priced in also means that the surprise factor should be less of a problem. The 94.50 – 93.90 area (Aug 26 mid body point, a c=a equality point and the 233d ma band) should provide firm support and we will likely see the foundation for a new move higher be laid within that area.

USD Index

EUR/USD: 1.1397 An alternate target activated. The passing of the 1.1373 resistance forces us to make a small change to the wave pattern of the Sept correction. Instead of a completed correction at 1.1373 the prolonged reaction now points at a possible target range in the 1.1476 – 1.1502 area. So short term we’re looking for bids in the 1.1370/90 area followed by a new reaction high. Falling below the mid body point of yesterday’s candle, 1.1363, and the final leg higher will be less certain.

EURUSD

USD/JPY: Something’s soon got to give way. The past month contracting range must soon be resolved by an exit from it. To further complicate the situation there are two possible and conflicting ways to count the triangle. Either the formation is a bearish consolidation to the steep Aug fall (and a break of 118.60 will then target the 114-112 area) OR the triangle is a smaller bullish consolidation to the late Aug rise. The latter alternative should make prices turn up from no later than 119.40 (so an important junction to bear in mind).

USDJPY

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