The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Sellers at the 233day “band”. The rally was finally tempered on the north side of the 233day exponentially weighted moving average band (1.1490\1.1615, based on session lows, closes & highs). The wave structure may either be a “Double Zigzag” or a straight “A-B-C” with a more developed 3rd leg higher. Either or, it is incomplete as it stands right now, so short-term pundits will look for the near-term correction lower to fade and develop into a buy (likely around 1.1534/1.1427) and target +1.18.
USD/JPY: Responsive buying below the band. A short term 161.8% Fibo projection ref and sub-233day exponentially weighted moving average band (118.95/118.05) levels pulled the pair back up from a gigantic near-term downside stretch. The pullback is 119,00 however now facing a bunch of resistance refs in the 120.27\72-zone, and those would be quite a feat to reclaim.
NZD/USD: Murdering volatility. The pair plummeted in a delayed reaction to what was going on elsewhere when powers to the computers was switched on in the New York opening. The -0.62 drop was as brutal as the following rebound. No wonder they price the 1mt vol at levels not seen since late Jan this year. This velocity will likely not last and for those who are brave – selling some upside calls might be worth considering (despite the risk reversal favoring puts over calls).
SP500: Battered bulls try a comeback. A black hole just opened yesterday and there was no escape from gravity yesterday – not until approaching a short-term Fibo projection and an Oct’14 low (1,817 & 1,794). Now bulls are trying to claw back some lost ground, but there is mid-body resistance at 1,920 to consider and further up there is more resistance at 1.935\51 and at 1,962\78, followed by additional resistance around the 2,000-mark.
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