The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/CHF, and Spot Gold as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Another 1.13+test underway. Even though most factors speaks in favor of a bear flag being under construction since Sept 22 the short term charts speaks of more near term upside risk. The move above 1.1273 triggers an hourly buy signal calling for a test of the flag’s upper boundary, 1.1340-ish (and then turning for a downside test). To avoid the above scenario prices must fall back below 1.1211.
USD/JPY: At the apex point. Given that prices just went out of the triangle to the right no signal was given. Nevertheless the apex point of the former triangle is still providing support to the market and unless falling below 119.75 in a sustained and impulsive manner, a soon move higher should be sought. On a grander scale it actually takes a 118.68 break to take a more bearish stance.
EUR/CHF: That’s an interesting U-turn. Following a false downside exit from the triangle the market soon pushed prices higher making the pair instead ending the day above the triangle’s upper boundary. The behavior is clearly bullish (with basically a key day reversal put in place yesterday) calling for more upside action near term. The triangle formation indicates that we should be heading for levels above the September top, 1.1050.
Spot Gold: Small setback likely before sharply up. Trendline sellers mark a “Triangle” wave point “D” and it should ideally be followed by a short & shallow “E-wave low, somewhere around 1,131/26 before moving up for the BIGbreak out of the formation to challenge resistance at 1169/70, 1,184 to reach the extension objective at 1,192.
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