The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and S&P500, as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Again rejected in the 55d ma band. The up and down move on Friday became the third consecutive rejection from the 55d ma band (since the return below it a month ago). The behavior is showing that bearish forces are at play and increasingly so given the return to a negative slope). We are thus looking for additional selling and a 1.0921 break to further enhance downside potential.
USD/JPY: Soon a new attempt above 124.48. Given the violation of the B-wave high (and a three wave setback from Thursday’s peak) there’s a high probability of a soon more successful break higher (targeting a new trend high). For today we see 124.37 as the trigger point for the next step higher.
AUD/USD: Short term exhausted sellers. The spinning candle (small net move and big spikes to both sides) and the spring bottom are both signs of exhaustive sellers. There’s clearly a potential for the pair to bounce back to retest the 2001 trend line (or even back up to the 0.75- area) during the coming week.
S&P 500: Soon higher again. As long as the recent correction low remains unbroken a positive view should be kept in place (the July candle also developed into a mildly bullish piercing pattern). The entire structure since May can also be seen as an inverted head and shoulders formation, here seen as an upside continuation pattern.
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