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Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/NZD, Gold – SEB

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/NZD, and Spot Gold as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Rise still looks correctional. Really not much to add to recent comments; the rise from 1.1090 clearly looks correctional to us and as such a bearish outcome continues to be expected.

USD/JPY: Should test the 122.00/10 area. So far the market has twice failed (yesterday and today) to maintain a move above 121-ish. Nevertheless the best fitted pattern still points to at least a 122.00/10 test possible higher. The biggest problem that we currently is facing is whether we have completed a three wave correction down to the recent lows (hence standing ready to resume the longer term trend) OR building a bearish pattern (which will gain credibility below 118.60) for a much deeper reaction than 116.15.

AUD/NZD: Finally on the move? The long lasting correctional sequence lower has been murder to directional ideas for months, but today’s RBNZ cut could be the tiebreaker needed. A bullish looking session in/beyond resistance at 1.1165\1.1290 should highlight potential and lift the bar back to the early Jul best at 1.1430.

Spot Gold: Wave count revised. What shouldn’t happen just did… A positive wave structure lived well until the 1,105-ref was violated and it was. Now the whole Jul-Aug ascent just looks like a momentous correctional corrective “A-B-C” structure – at least as long as the 1,148 high is not reclaimed.

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