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Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/CNH, USD/JPY, Oil – SEB

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/CNH, USD/JPY, and Oil as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Another 55d ma band rejection? The pair moved a tad higher (1.1042) than expected before turning around and falling back lower. A close at current levels (or lower) will create yet another 55d ma band rejection indicating that the sellers still are in control. A sustained break below 1.0926 will sharply up a bearish outlook calling for a swift continuation down to the recent low area.

e-Institutional Views

USD/CNH: The beginning of a new trend? Today’s extremely impulsive move higher has cancelled out the idea that the move up from the 2014 low point was a three wave upside corrective move. Today’s break above 6.3014 makes such a wave count obsolete and instead warns of creating either a more complex upside correction pattern (theoretically targeting the 6.48-area) OR a having entered a third of a third wave (allowing for considerably higher levels over the medium term horizon).

e-Institutional Views

USD/JPY: Buyers at the top of the 55dma band. The bearish key day reversal on Friday was at least partly neutralized yesterday as buyers again took advantage of a dip down to the high end of the 55d ma band. Also the hourly wave pattern mostly argues for Friday’s decline to have been merely a short lived correction. If continuing according to plan the pair should soon try to overcome the recent top, 125.08, paving the way for a test of the June (and multiyear) peak, 125.86.

e-Institutional Views

BRENT CRUDE: A bullish key day reversal candle. The called for decline brought prices down in close proximity to the 48.10 support before rebounding. The price action is still very poor given the lack of follow through selling at fresh lows. Yesterday also ended with a bullish key day reversal candle indicating that 48.24 was the low at least for now. The coming days should see prices moving higher underpinned by short covering.

e-Institutional Views

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