The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Crude Oil, and SP500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Still in a waiting mode. An attempt lower yesterday was later on reversed and the pair ended the day more or less unchanged. So the undertone remains bearish but Mr. Market has apparently decided to await Fed around 1.13. The room to maneuver is also increasing by the day given the narrowing area between the 55 & 233d ma bands so a breakout, preferably to the downside, should occur any time soon.
USD/CAD: Fell out of the wedge. The answer to yesterday’s make or break question has now been given. The exit from the rising channel/wedge is yet another indication that this rally has run its course and that a more profound correction lower has begun. Next the market will push for a break below the 55d ma band and ultimately we could see the pair sinking back towards the 1.29/1.28 area. The clear MACD divergence is also underpinning the move lower.
BRENT CRUDE: Broke higher & there’s more to come. Exiting the bull flag and breaking and closing above 48.49 has put us on alert for a continuation of the upside reaction that begun late August. The next development, if following a correction textbook, will be a break above the b-wave high at 53.26 (confirming also a forthcoming break of 55.14). The ideal target for a more profound correction is the 60.50 area.
S&P 500: Upside progress. The exit from the bull triangle had the expected effect, more buying. With the passing of also the late August reaction high the way should now have been paid for a continuation towards the important ma bands area (if this is just part of an upside correction, then the ideal target is 2048).
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