The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/JPY, and USD/CAD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Topside spikes points lower. The past two days the market has tried to recover some of the recent losses but so far only without any success. The topside spikes shows that cautious buying soon has ran into offers, a behavior that we read as bearish. We must however probably pass today’s ECB announcement before making a real go for the downside i.e. passing 1.1306.
GBP/USD: Get ready for a powerful decline. Since the peak in June the pair has three times repeated a pattern of impulsively falling prices and three wave corrections (it is however still not fully clear whether the current one peaked at 1.5508 or if there’s one marginally high, preferably a spike above 1.5508, missing). So either prices fall beneath 1.5382 indicating that a top is in place and a powerful decline now underway OR we will make a failed attempt above 1.5508 (sell into such a move if occurring) completing wave c/ii (and getting prepared for a powerful decline).
AUD/JPY: Set to dismantle supports below. The high end of the “Cloud” has proven itself again and again and now price action turns more negative, posting a threat to the lower end of this “Cloud”, now at 85.20. If also breaking the short-term “Equality point” at 84.95, downside potential would add more credence and put forth arguments for extension towards 83.65 (trendline support) and 82.78 (late Sep low). Downside prospects would fade on a counterbreak back over 87.35\55.
USD/CAD: Targeting 1.3145\1.3215 next. A bullish benchmark candle was added yesterday. Its midbody point at 1.3060 should be supportive together with a previous high 20pips above and an ascending trendline some 60pips below it. This makes it likely to see extension higher to test Fibo retracement refs at 1.3145 & 1.3215 before the move is ebbing out. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.3000 & 1.3200.
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