The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Downside risks will soon return. Today is the second day after the latest falling benchmark candle so we should be expecting a push to new lows later today or by tomorrow (it normally takes two to three periods for the market to digest a benchmark candle move). Until then it is unclear whether the small bounce from the lows was completed with the move to 1.0790 or if there’s a final push up to the mid body point, 1.0809, waiting to be done.
AUD/USD: Elevated risk for a downside break. With metals again breaking lower (copper’s exit from the bear triangle the latest one) the pressure on the AUD is mounting. With also a three wave correction (from the Sep low) in place downside risks must be regarded being elevated. The current minor correction/consolidation is seen ending no later than 0.7095 and an attempt to break the floor of the bear flag should follow.
USD/JPY: Stalled in the resistance zone . As expected yesterday’s attempt higher failed in the 123.35/70 resistance zone. There’s clearly a short term risk that after yesterday’s doji candle the market will drift south and testing the mid body support (of the latest rising benchmark candle), 122.44.
S&P 500: Down at first support. With firm resistance on top (prior contract life time high and the 2014 trend line (that we broke below in August and now is checking from beneath) it is not surprising at all that we are finding prices being pushed lower. As long as we remain on top of the September high, 2011, there’s no threat to a bullish outlook (and a new record high). In fact it could be worth keeping an eye open for bullish signs in the 2065 – 2052 area.
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