Forex News: The euro made a quick and strong run towards the resistance zone between 1.1040 – 1.1060, staging a breakout of the range it has been in for the last months. The US Dollar wasn’t strongly affected by the ADP employment report which came out better than expected but still lower than previous.
The current move is likely to extend above the zone around 1.1040 – 1.1060 but once the impulse calms down, we expect a pullback lower, towards the mentioned zone. Usually strong moves like the one seen yesterday are followed by a counter move or by a period of sideways movement. Once the pullback is complete, we expect the upside action to continue, with the first target being 1.1100.
ECB President Mario Draghi speaks today at 8:00 am GMT at a Lecture in Frankfurt. Depending on the topics discussed and his attitude, the Euro may have a reaction but the extent is likely to be limited. Nonetheless, caution is advised, as always during the speeches of heads of Central Banks.
After successfully establishing 1.4350 as support, the pair continued higher in yesterday’s trading session and is now trading above 1.4565.
Although the short term bias is bullish, price is likely to stall or even bounce lower before it can continue higher. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are overbought but this is not a reason on it’s own for a potential move down; however it shows that the pair travelled too far, too fast, thus increasing the chances of bearish price action.
The Bank of England will announce today at 12:00 pm GMT their decision regarding the interest rate (no change expected), as well as a Monetary Policy Statement and a breakdown of the MPC members’ votes on the rate. At the same time the Inflation Report comes out, containing an outlook for the economy and inflation for the next 2 years. Later, at 12:45 pm GMT, BoE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, discussing the contents of the Inflation Report. All these events will most likely generate another high-volatility day for the Pound and will probably overshadow the technical aspect.