Subscribe to RSS

GBP/USD Forecast: stuck in the falling channel ahead of UK GDP

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD pair rose to an intraday high of 1.5381 on Monday, before trimming gains to end the day at 1.5350 levels. The closing marked a failure to take out 50-DMA resistance and also a failure to sustain above 1.5355 (38.2% of 1.5107-1.5509).

GDP may surprise on the positive side

UK Q3 GDP figures are due for release today. Economists see quarter-on-quarter growth slowing to 0.6% from previous figure of 0.7%. However, the GDP could surprise on the higher side; courtesy of super strong UK retail sales number released last week. In case, the number is higher than 0.7%, Sterling could spike to 1.54 – 1.5423 (hourly 200-MA) levels. But the rally may not sustain. Last week’s super strong retail sales did lead to a 40-50 pip spike in Sterling, which was quickly erased (since the boost was due to Rugby world cup – a one off event). A similar move could be seen today in case the number is higher than 0.7%.

US durable goods report

The corporate spending in the US; like consumer spending; has not been encouraging despite the record stock market rally, ultra easy monetary policy. Even the talk of a rate hike has not seen corporate boost spending in anticipation of higher rates in near future. Hence, a negative figure is likely to kill the US dollar ahead of the FOMC rate decision tomorrow. The Fed rate hike bets continue to slide amid a fresh round of monetary easing in Europe and Asia.

A combination of a strong UK GDP figure and a weak US durable goods report could send Sterling above 1.5420, which is the falling trendline resistance on the daily chart.

Technicals – Falling channel on the hourly chart

Sterling is moving a falling channel on the hourly chart. A break above the channel resistance currently seen at 1.5360 could push the pair higher to 1.54. A daily close above 1.5420 (falling trend line resistance on the daily chart) would turn the short-term outlook bullish. On the other side, a failure to take out the falling channel resistance at 1.5360 could push the pair down to 1.5280 (channel support). A break below the same would 1.5240-1.5200 levels.

EUR/USD Analysis: Technical recovery may continue on weak US data

EURUSD

The EUR/USD pair rose to a high of 1.1068 on Monday as investors took a breather following a sharp fall to a fresh two-and-a-half month low. A sharp drop in the US new home sales added to the weak tone on the US dollar.

Focus on US durable goods data

The technical recovery may continue in case the US durable goods orders print in negative. As said earlier, the corporate spending has stayed anaemic , raising doubts on whether the US economy would be able to sustain a rate hike. The probability of a Fed rate hike is already very low and a weak durable goods number would only add to the bearish pressure on the USD ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision.

Technicals – Bulls need a close above 1.11

Euro faces multiple resistances on its way towards 1.11 handle – 1.1076 (rising trend line resistance), 1.1088 (50% of Mar-Aug rally). The next resistance is seen at 1.1116 (200-DMA). Hence, the EUR bulls would need atleast a daily close above 1.11 in order to halt the fall and lead to consolidation/technical correction in the pair. On the other hand, a failure to take out 1.1076 would push the pair back to 1.10 handle. A strong US durable goods report could easily push the pair below 1.10.

0 commentsback to post

Add your comment

Nickname:
E-mail:
Website:
Comment:

Other articlesgo to homepage

500 Cent Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus – FortFs

500 Cent Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus – FortFs(0)

Get 500 Cent Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus 2017-2018 to All New Traders. Open a forex real trading account, pass the personal data verification procedure and get the 500 Cent Free Forex Welcome Bonus! Link:  Up to 50% Bonus of Every Deposit Link:  500 Cent Forex No Deposit Bonus Link:  15% Support Margin Bonus Available

$10000 Monthly Challenge Live Trading Contest – FXCM

$10000 Monthly Challenge Live Trading Contest – FXCM(0)

$10,000 Monthly Challenge Live Trading Contest Compete to Win Cash Prizes. The Contest only available to FXCM Mini Account clients Join the monthly Live Trading Contest by opening an FXCM Mini Account with as little as $50. Link:  $10000 Monthly Challenge Contest Available to: All Mini Account clients Contest offer: $10,000 Monthly Challenge Live Trading

$1000 Free No Deposit Forex Bonus – Grand Capital

$1000 Free No Deposit Forex Bonus – Grand Capital(0)

Contests for Forex trader Main Prize $1000 Free No Deposit Forex Bonus. The Contests main prize is $1000 Free No Deposit Forex Bonus with fully withdraw able profit Link:  $1000 Free Bonus‎ Trader Contest Link:  $500 Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus Link:  Up to 444% Profit Receive for a single trade Link:  40% Forex Deposit

Up to $5000 Trading Credits Bonus Promo – HYCM

Up to $5000 Trading Credits Bonus Promo – HYCM(0)

25% Forex Credit Bonus Promo available on your Deposits. Experience Some of HYCM New Features, Services and Offers Receive 25% Forex trading credit bonus Link:  25% Trading Bonus on your Deposits Ending Date:  31 December 2017 Available to:   New Clients only Bonus Offer: 25% Forex Trading Bonus Promo Available on your deposits to New Clients only.

$20 Forex No Deposit  Bonus Promo Action – NPBFX

$20 Forex No Deposit Bonus Promo Action – NPBFX(0)

$20 Free No Deposit Bonus Promo action. $20 Free No Deposit Bonus Client must submit application of requesting the accrual of bonus funds with indicating the number of trading account by email  info@npbfx.com. Link:  $20 Free Bonus Promo Action Ending Date:  1 March 2017 Available to:   New Clients only Bonus Offer: $20 Free No Deposit

300% Forex Tradable Bonus Promotion 2017 – MarketsYes

300% Forex Tradable Bonus Promotion 2017 – MarketsYes(0)

300% Forex Tradable Bonus Promotion All New and existing clients. MarketsYes is offering all prospective clients deposit for up to 3000 USD/EUR/GBP a 300% Tradable Bonus. Link:  300% Tradable Bonus Promotion Available to: All New and existing clients Ending Date: 31 December 2017 Bonus offer:  300% Tradable Bonus Promotion All New and existing clients. SETTLEMENT

FX Zones Forex Demo Trading Contests – Forex Time

FX Zones Forex Demo Trading Contests – Forex Time(0)

FX Zones Forex Demo Trading Contests 2017 Win up to a total of $12,000. ForexTime is doing something extra special with its trading contests this year, starting with FX Zones Forex Demo Trading Contest  2017 Link:  Demo Forex Trading Contest Link:  Loyalty Cashback Promotions Link:  200% Withdraw-able Cashback Rebates Available to:   New Clients only Contest

Get $88.8 Forex Free No Deposit Bonus – FBS Inc

Get $88.8 Forex Free No Deposit Bonus – FBS Inc(0)

Get $88.8 Forex Free No Deposit Bonus when you open your first FBS Real Account. The $88.8 Free Forex bonuses is credited automatically after account opening, upon verification of the clients phone number and e-mail. Link:  $123 Forex No Deposit Bonus Promotion Link:  $88.8 Lucky No Deposit Required Bonus (for Malaysian traders) Link:  100% Forex

100% Welcome Bonus to Your First Deposit – AvaTrade

100% Welcome Bonus to Your First Deposit – AvaTrade(0)

100% Special Welcome Bonus Offer to your first deposit Up to $300. Start trading today and in honor of our Irish roots we’ll give you a St. Patrick Day special Welcome bonus of up to 100% Link:  100% Special Bonus to Your First Deposit Available to: All new account Ending Date: 31 December 2017 Bonus

Share your photo and Free win $200 – Grand Capital

Share your photo and Free win $200 – Grand Capital(0)

Share your photo and Free win $100, $150 or $200. Comment this post with your photo, which conveys your/public perspective on how a Forex trader should look like and receive one of the great prizes Link:  $500 Forex No Deposit Welcome Bonus Link:  Up to 444% Profit Receive for a single trade Link:  Get $200

read more

Forex Featured Broker

Contacts and information

ForexDepositNews.com Forex Deposit Bonus, Forex No Deposit Bonus, Forex Live Contest, Forex Demo Contest, Free Forex Bonus Forex Brokers Review and Other All Forex promotions.

ForexDepositNews.com

Social networks

Most popular categories