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Forex Technical Analysis: EUR/US – GBP/USDD – 2016-02-12

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair showed signs of indecision yesterday but moved higher, above the resistance at 1.1310. Yellen’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee didn’t create the strong volatility we anticipated and the greenback remained mostly unaffected.

Technical Outlook

Although wavering, the current uptrend is advancing, making higher highs and higher lows and moving above resistance. If the bulls can sustain price above 1.1310 we are likely to see a move into the zone near 1.1400 but we must note the fact that the Relative Strength Index is moving downwards, making lower highs. This shows bearish divergence and thus weakness for the current move up, so it’s possible to see a move towards 1.1200 today, depending also on the economic data released by Europe and the United States.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the German Prelim Gross Domestic Product is released, showing the overall performance of the German economy. No change is expected from the previous 0.3% but if a higher number is posted, the Euro is likely to strengthen.

The U.S. Retail Sales come out at 1:30 pm GMT, with a forecast change of 0.1% (previous -0.1%). Sales made at retail levels represent a major part of economic activity, thus higher numbers are beneficial to the US Dollar. The last important economic indicator of the week is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, a survey of about 500 consumers regarding their opinion on current and future economic environment. The release is scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and the forecast is 92.6, slightly better than the previous 92.0. Higher values usually strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair descended again below 1.4475 but didn’t continue lower into support, showing that neither side is in clear control.

Technical Outlook

The recent drop took price below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.4475 so the short term bias is slightly bearish now, as long as price remains below the mentioned technical levels. Near support is located at 1.4350 and a break of this level would imply that further downside will follow; on the other hand, a move above 1.4475 would make 1.4565 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t prepare any major economic news releases for today so all eyes will be on the United States for the indicators mentioned earlier.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

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