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Forex: Renewed risk-off environment promotes GBP vulnerability

Global Market

The currency markets are continuing to look jittery, with pairs currently alternating between gains and losses. Dollar sensitivity continues to take center stage as market participants systematically reduce their bets on a US rate hike in 2015. Sentiment towards the USD remains bearish and a declining ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI release in Monday’s US session reinforced further pressure within the USD. The weak NFP release in addition to a decline in manufacturing in the States offers a compelling argument for the Fed to hold off a rate hike until 2016.

What appears to be a resumption of a risk-off environment from investors has once again punished the Sterling. The Service PMI from October missing expectations widely has impacted on investor sentiment, and made the GBP exposed to pressures. These soft economic data releases from the UK have acted as factors which have resulted in expectations for an interest rate hike by the BoE pushed back, contributing to more pressure on the GBP. Technically the GBPUSD remains bearish on the daily timeframe with many seeing the 1.5100 level as a probable bottom. Any additional GBP weakness may enact a further decline past the 1.5100 level to the next relevant support based at 1.5000.

Despite the renewed fears about the state of global economies, the European equities experienced a positive day with most venturing back into green territory. Glencore’s 20% share increase on Monday resulted in the FTSE100 concluding the trading session +2.76% higher. Even though the bulls are currently lifting the FTSE100 higher, any additional pressures received from weak China data this month or selling in the commodity markets may result in any further upside momentum within this index curbed.

Looking at the Eurozone, EU economic sentiment has suffered another step back following the economy returning to deflation territory last month. With the Eurozone inflation returning to negative, there are increased chances the ECB will at least continue to threaten further QE for the EU economy.

GOLD

Dollar weakness instilled Gold with an upside momentum. This precious metal remains technically bullish on the daily timeframe as long as prices can keep above the 1100.00 support. Prices are above the 20 daily SMA and the MACD has crossed to the upside. The next relevant resistance is based at 1155.00.

Gold

SILVER

Silver is technically bullish on the daily timeframe. Prices trade above the 20 daily SMA and the MACD has crossed to the upside. The daily close above the 15.550 resistance may open a path to the next relevant resistance based at 16.00. A move back below the 15.00 level suggests some bullish weakness.

Silver

CADJPY

The CADJPY currently resides in a wide range on the daily timeframe. Prices are trading above the 20 daily SMA and the MACD is in the process of crossing to the upside. A breakout above the 92.50 resistance may open a path to the next relevant resistance at 94.00.

CADJPY

AUDNZD

The AUDNZD is techanically bearish on the daily timeframe. Prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA and the MACD has crossed to the downside. A breakdown below the 1.0900 support may open a path to the next relevant support based at 1.0700.

AUDNZD

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