Forex News: Friday the Euro had another encounter with support on the back of worse than expected German Manufacturing data and a dovish speech delivered in Davos by ECB President Mario Draghi. However the week ended before a clear break could be identified.
The pair reached the important support at 1.0800 once again and this time we expect it to go through the level and make a run for 1.0710. However, a bounce here would suggest that price will move higher, into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if the economic data released throughout the day meets analysts’ expectations, probably the market impact will be mild and we will have a slow, ranging day.
At 9:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate comes out, expected to show a value of 108.5 compared to the previous 108.7. This survey is derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding current economic conditions as well as expectations for the next 6 months and usually has a hefty impact on the Euro, but only if the actual value differs significantly from analysts’ forecast. Higher numbers generally strengthen the Euro. Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT, Mario Draghi will deliver a speech in Frankfurt and as always, caution is recommended during his public appearances.
Despite a worse than expected value of the British Retail Sales, the Pound pushed higher in the first part of Friday’s trading session and touched resistance. However, later in the day the pair bounced lower on the back of a weakened Pound.
Friday’s move up was a much needed retracement but as we saw, the bulls couldn’t manage to keep price above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; also the level located at 1.4350 is now confirmed as resistance and we can expect it to reject rising prices in the future. On top of that, the Stochastic is now overbought, a condition that wasn’t seen in a long while, so all things point towards another move south, below 1.4230. If this is not the case and price moves above 1.4350, it means we are dealing with a longer retracement to the upside but still not an end of the downtrend.
There are no major economic indicator releases scheduled for the Pound today so the pair’s direction will be primarily influenced by the technical aspect.