Central Bank President Draghi did not make a case for additional measures to be considered anytime soon. This is especially true as the latest measures’ impact on the economy must be evaluated first.
As a result of the above outlined conditions we expect the EUR to be driven more by external factors such as global risk sentiment and Fed rate expectations.
While the Fed should stay on track to consider higher rates in December, risk sentiment may become more unstable on the back of capped growth and liquidity expectations. This is especially true should incoming US data make a case of a more gradual tightening path.
However, any further EUR upside should be contained at levels of around 1.10. From a broader angle we remain in favour of selling EUR rallies, especially as investors’ ECB monetary policy expectations should remain strongly capped.
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