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EUR/USD: Market To Square Positions Ahead Of FOMC – Barclays

“USD: September is here: We expect the USD to consolidate this week without significant events/economic releases scheduled.

With the last employment report before the September meeting over, we think that markets will square positions ahead of the FOMC decision on September 17. With only a one-third chance of a lift-off at that meeting, we see limited downside risks to the USD in the short term and keep our bullish medium-term view, particularly vs. the EUR and EM currencies.

EUR: Market to continue to contemplate further ECB QE: We continue to expect the ECB to announce before year-end an extension of the current QE programme beyond September 2016; this view was encouraged by sizeable downward revisions to the ECB’s inflation forecast for 2016 and 2017 to 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively.

As such, we continue to expect further material EUR depreciation and recommend remaining short EURUSD.”

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