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EUR/USD: dollar resurges on dovish European Central Banks

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1243

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Two Central Banks have passed offering nothing really ground breaking, but helping the American dollar in recovering some ground after falling down to fresh weekly lows against the EUR and the GBP. In Europe, stocks opened with a soft tone, and remain quiet around their opening, waiting for the US Central Bank’s minutes, to be released later in the American afternoon. Macroeconomic data coming from Germany disappointed once again, with the trade balance surplus well below previous month one at €19.6B in August, whilst export and imports posted a sharp decline.

The ECB released the Accounts of its latest meeting, with the Central Bank expressing its concern over the slowdown in emerging markets weighing in global growth, whilst the local recovery has been weaker than previously expected. The ECB also said that it has been front buying ever since September, and will continue to do so until November.

The EUR/USD pair pulled down from a daily high of 1.1314 and accelerated its decline after losing again the 1.1280, and falling as low as 1.1239. In the US, the weekly unemployment claims came out better-than-expected, down to 263K in the week ending October 2. The 1 hour chart shows that the price temporary broke above the daily descendant trend line coming form 1.1713, but is now below it, with the technical indicators heading sharply lower and the price below the 20 SMA, supporting a downward continuation short term. In the 4 hours chart, the price is now struggling around its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators also turned sharply lower, but hold above their mid-lines.

Support levels: 1.1200 1.1160 1.1120

Resistance levels: 1.1285 1.1335 1.1370

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5270

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The Bank of England left its economic policy unchanged, largely in line with market’s expectations, with 1 out of 9 MPC members voting for a rate hike. The tone was mild dovish, as the BOE expressed its concern over the currency strength while downgrading its inflation expectations, now seen below 1% until 2016 spring. The GBP/USD pair retreated from a fresh weekly high of 1.5371, accelerating its decline below the 1.5300 level on the back of EUR decline, accelerating lower on the back of US employment data. The 1 hour chart shows that the indicators head sharply lower near oversold territory, whilst the 20 SMA is now turning south around 1.5315, the 38.2% retracement of the latest daily decline. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators retreat from overbought levels, but the price is well above its 20 SMA that now converges with the 23.6% retracement of the same rally around 1.5240.

Support levels: 1.5240 1.5210 1.5170

Resistance levels: 1.5315 1.5340 1.5390

USD/JPY Current price: 119.92

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Increasing bearish potential. The USD/JPY pair remains flat, but daily basis, it has posted a lower low at 116.62m whilst the upside remains capped by selling interest around the 120.00 figure. With the pair still within its recent range, the daily chart shows that the bearish potential increases as the price moves further below the 200 DMA, whilst the 100 DMA gains bearish strength above the other. Shorter term, the 1 hour chat shows that the price holds below its 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst the technical indicators have bounced and are about to cross their mid-lines towards the upside, on the recent dollar’s momentum. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators also turned north, but remain below their mid-lines, whilst the price remains below its moving averages. The pair needs to break above 120.35, a Fibonacci resistance, to confirm additional intraday gains that anyway will hardly extend beyond 121.00

Support levels: 119.60 119.35 118.90

Resistance levels: 120.35 120.70 121.00

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7170

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The AUD/USD pair is easing from  its Wednesday high, as dollar advances ahead of the American opening, weighed by a sudden decline in gold prices amid dollar’s demand. The 1 hour chart shows that the price is being capped by a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators turned south below their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are pointing for a downward correction, heading south from extreme overbought levels, whilst the 20 SMA aims higher around 0.7145, providing an immediate support in the case of further declines.

Support levels: 0.7145 0.7110 0.7080

Resistance levels: 0.7200 0.7235 0.7280

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