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Analysis AUDUSD – probe above 20SMA signals stronger recovery

EURUSD

Yesterday’s strong bearish acceleration, seen after false attempt above daily 20SMA, ended day in long red candle and closed below pivotal daily 200SMA support at 1.1175. Fresh extension lower, on today’s trading, cracked daily 100SMA at 1.1143, the last significant obstacle en-route towards key support and short-term base lows at 1.1100/1.1085. Break here is needed to confirm an end of month-long congestion, entrenched between 1.1085 and 1.1458, confirmed by monthly long-legged Doji candle.
Near-term bears may be delayed for correction on oversold conditions. Former pivot, 200SMA, now acts is immediate resistance at 1.1175, which lies near Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1259/1.1133 fall, with extended rallies, expected to hold below 1.1211, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, which guards 20SMA pivot at 1.1232.

Res: 1.1180; 1.1211; 1.1232; 1.1260
Sup: 1.1133; 1.1105; 1.1086; 1.1020

eurusd

GBPUSD

Cable approached psychological 1.5100 support, on yesterday’s fresh acceleration lower that left red daily candle with long upper shadow, signaling strong selling interest. Firm bullish tone favors final attack at 1.5085 target, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of Apr/June1.4563/1.5928 rally, violation of which would expose psychological 1.50 support. The notion is supported by 10/200SMA’s death cross and formation of 20/200SMA’s death cross at 1.5327.
Near-term price action consolidates above fresh lows at 1.5105, with narrow consolidation seen so far, ahead of fresh push lower. Only extended rallies above 1.5265, falling daily 10SMA / broken bull-trendline, drawn off 1.4563, low of 13 Apr, would sideline immediate downside threats.

Res: 1.5165; 1.5212; 1.5265; 1.5327
Sup: 1.5105; 1.5085; 1.5000; 1.4975

gbpjpy


USDJPY

Fresh strength from 119.23, low of 29 Sep, where triangle support contained dips, improves near-term structure. Return above daily 20SMA at 120.08 and attempts at triangle’s upper boundary, currently at 120.30, turned near-term focus higher, for renewed attempts higher. Break higher to open thin daily Ichimoku cloud (120.52/120.70) and 200SMA at 120.93. Break above these barriers is required near-term bullish structure for final attempt at 121.30, short-term congestion ceiling.
Alternatively, loss of 20SMA handle and return to triangle support line, currently at 119.40, would weaken near-term structure.

Res: 120.33; 120.52; 120.70; 120.93
Sup: 120.00; 119.75; 119.40; 119.23

usdjpy

AUDUSD

The pair formed double-bottom at 0.6935 and accelerated today above initial barrier and former consolidation top at 0.7040. Fresh strength probes above pivotal daily 20SMA at 0.7052, also near Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7278/0.6935 fall, with sustained break here, needed to give bullish signal for further recovery.
Rally penetrated into 4-hour Ichimoku cloud, top of which marks next barrier at 0.7107, also the mid-point of 0.7878/0.6935 fall, with next pivotal barrier laying at 0.7147, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement.
Daily close above 20SMA, is required to confirm correction.

Res: 0.7107; 0.7147; 0.7205; 0.7248
Sup: 0.7040; 0.7020; 0.6996; 0.6977

audusd

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